Wallis and Futuna

From Gerris

(Difference between revisions)
Jump to: navigation, search
Revision as of 22:48, 23 July 2012
Popinet (Talk | contribs)
(Aleutians (Mw 9))
← Previous diff
Revision as of 22:55, 23 July 2012
Popinet (Talk | contribs)
(Kuril (Mw 9.28, 15-m resolution))
Next diff →
Line 376: Line 376:
| '''Fault parameters''' || || '''Tsunami statistics''' || Wallis   || Futuna | '''Fault parameters''' || || '''Tsunami statistics''' || Wallis   || Futuna
|- |-
-| Longitude, Latitude || 153.224, 46.616   || Maximum wave elevation   || 3.9 || 4.5+| Longitude, Latitude || 153.224, 46.616   || Maximum wave elevation || 3.9 || 4.5
|- |-
-| Length, Width, Depth   || 1000e3, 200e3, 1e3   || Arrival time || [8.6: > 12.2]   || [8.8: > 12.2]+| Length, Width, Depth   || 1000e3, 200e3, 1e3   || Maximum inundation depth   || 3.1 || 3.5
|- |-
-| Strike, Dip, Rake || 220, 30, 90+| Strike, Dip, Rake || 220, 30, 90 || Arrival time || [8h33: > 12h]   || [8h49: > 12h]
|- |-
| Slip || 17 | Slip || 17

Revision as of 22:55, 23 July 2012

Contents

Introduction

The simulations below were obtained using the non-linear shallow-water solver of Gerris. This numerical model provides solutions of the mathematical equations describing the flow of a "single layer" of fluid. It is based on the assumption that the wavelength of the tsunami waves is large compared to the depth of the sea. As can be seen on the accompanying animations, the wavelength of tsunami waves can vary between several tens of kilometres in deep water down to a few tens of metres in shallow water. The assumption that their wavelength is long compared to the depth of the sea is verified in most areas.

Numerical models describe the solution by sampling it at given intervals. The spacing between these samples (the "spatial resolution") controls how accurate the solution is. Short waves (near the coast) need to be described with very short sampling intervals (high resolution) whereas long waves (in deep water) can be described with longer sampling intervals (lower resolution). Gerris automatically adjusts this sampling interval to guarantee accurate solutions everywhere. For the simulations below the sampling interval varies automatically between about one kilometre in deep water down to 60 or 15 metres near the coastline. This allows to capture accurately both the long-distance tsunami wave propagation (for distant earthquakes such as Kuril for example) as well as very detailed local inundation on the coasts of Wallis and Futuna. This "adaptive" numerical method has been validated extensively both using theoretical and experimental test cases [Popinet, 2011] as well as real-world tsunamis [Popinet, 2012].

Aside from the choice of spatial resolution, the accuracy and reliability of the modelled scenarios depend also on the quality of the input data. The bathymetry and topography data are important as they control both the deep-water propagation as well as details of local inundation. For Futuna, we had only limited data for the local topography (contour lines at 0, 2.5, 5, 10, and 20 metres) and high-resolution multibeam data but only for depths below 10 metres. We had no data on the fringing reef. The reef is particularly important as the shallow water in this area can break and dissipate tsunami waves before they reach the coastline. To fill this gap, we digitised a single line for the contour of the reef from navigation charts and set its depth to -1 metre everywhere. This is clearly a very crude approach but was the best we could do.

For Wallis, we had acquired high-resolution GPS data for most land areas close to the coastline (on the main island only) and also had access to high-resolution multibeam data for some small areas in the lagoon, as well as for depths below 10 metres for the outer reef wall. The influence of the reef and lagoon is of course even more important for Wallis than for Futuna. For the outer reef platform, we used the same approach as for Futuna, using digitised reef outlines from navigation charts and setting a constant depth of 0 metres. We also added some contours in the lagoon obtained by analysis of ocean colour on satellite images. While the outer reef platform can be considered adequately represented by this approach, the complex bathymetry of the lagoon is very crudely represented and this needs to be taken into account when interpreting high-resolution inundation results. While we had more topographic data for Wallis than for Futuna, we consider the terrain model for Wallis to be significantly less reliable than that of Futuna, because the lagoon bathymetry is much more complex.

The other important input to the model is the initial wave field generated by earthquakes. All the sources below are based on the "Okada elastic deformation model" which assumes simple elastic caracteristics for the deformations of the sea floor due to fault ruptures. The corresponding vertical displacement of the seafloor is assumed to translate directly into a vertical motion of the sea surface. This initial vertical deformation is used as input for the tsunami model. This is a very standard approach which has been shown to be able to reproduce historical tsunamis, with compatible estimates of the intensity of the triggering earthquakes. From a tsunami generation perspective, the most important parameters are the total energy released (i.e. the magnitude), the fault orientation and the "dip angle" of the fault plane. The dip angle is important because it controls the amount of energy released as a vertical displacement of the sea surface. For the scenarios below, these parameters are estimated based on our current knowledge of the particular faults concerned.

References

S. Popinet - Quadtree-adaptive tsunami modelling

Ocean Dynamics 61(9):1261-1285, 2011
Bibtex

S. Popinet - Adaptive modelling of long-distance wave propagation and fine-scale flooding during the Tohoku tsunami

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12(4):1213-1227, 2012
Bibtex

Near field

Tonga 2009 (Mw 8.1, 15 m resolution)

Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Maximum wave elevation 2.7 8.7
Maximum inundation depth   2.2 8.0
Arrival time [0h33:2h45]   [1h17:6h47]
Initial vertical displacement (finite fault model)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (finite fault model)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Vanuatu back-arc (Mw 7.96, 15 m resolution)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude 168.16, -15.3   Maximum wave elevation 0.9 3.3
Length, Width, Depth   200e3, 30e3, 0   Maximum inundation depth   0.4 2.6
Strike, Dip, Rake 170, 40, 90 Arrival time [2h47:3h13]   [2h26:2h58]
Slip 6
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Vanuatu north (Mw 8.39)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude 166.25, -12.6   Maximum wave elevation 0.5 1.1
Length, Width, Depth   400e3, 40e3, 0   Maximum inundation depth   0.2 1.0
Strike, Dip, Rake 350, 30, 90 Arrival time [3h14:3h42]   [2h55:3h12]
Slip 10
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

South Vanuatu trench (Mw 8.24)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude 168.7, -19.9   Maximum wave elevation 0.4 0.9
Length, Width, Depth   300e3, 40e3, 0   Maximum inundation depth   0.4 0.3
Strike, Dip, Rake 335, 30, 90 Arrival time [3h11:7h30]   [2h43:2h54]
Slip 8
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Futuna (Mw 6.97, 15 m resolution)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -178.13, -14.32   Maximum wave elevation 0.1 4.9
Length, Width, Depth   40e3, 15e3, 0   Maximum inundation depth   0.1 3.6
Strike, Dip, Rake 300, 60, 90 Arrival time [0h47:1h3]   [0h0:0h15]
Slip 2
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Tonga trench (Mw 9.06)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -173.7, -20.5   Maximum wave elevation 6.8 11.1
Length, Width, Depth   1000e3, 80e3, 10e3   Maximum inundation depth   5.6 9.8
Strike, Dip, Rake 195, 30, 90 Arrival time [0h19:3h55]   [0h45:3h44]
Slip 20
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

MSL + 1 metre (15 m resolution)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -173.7, -20.5   Maximum wave elevation 6.9 13.4
Length, Width, Depth   1000e3, 80e3, 10e3   Maximum inundation depth   6.5 11.7
Strike, Dip, Rake 195, 30, 90 Arrival time [0h23: > 7h]   [0h45: > 7h]
Slip 20
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Northern tip Tonga (Mw 8.16)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -173.75, -14.7   Maximum wave elevation 3.0 1.7
Length, Width, Depth   300e3, 40e3, 2.5e3   Maximum inundation depth   2.7 1.4
Strike, Dip, Rake 100, 60, -90 Arrival time [0h10:1h48]   [0h58:1h45]
Slip 6
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Central Tonga (Mw 8.57)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -174.5, -21.5   Maximum wave elevation 1.7 1.2
Length, Width, Depth   600e3, 50e3, 2.5e3   Maximum inundation depth   1.3 1.1
Strike, Dip, Rake 200, 30, 90 Arrival time [1h15:2h58]   [1h26:5h44]
Slip 10
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single Okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Far field

Tohoku 2011 (Mw 9)

Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Maximum wave elevation 1.0 0.5
Maximum inundation depth   0.6 0.3
Arrival time [9h7:18h49]   [9h20:11h18]
Initial vertical displacement (finite fault model)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (finite fault model)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Chile 1960 (Mw 9.29)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -75.11, -42.17   Maximum wave elevation 0.7 0.5
Length, Width, Depth   920e3, 120e3, 0.   Maximum inundation depth   0.4 0.1
Strike, Dip, Rake 10, 12, 90 Arrival time [13h30:22h23]   [13h59:15h13]
Slip 32
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Peru 1868 (Mw 9.13)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -74.5, -16.5   Maximum wave elevation 2.2 3.2
Length, Width, Depth   900e3, 150e3, 10e3   Maximum inundation depth   1.5 1.5
Strike, Dip, Rake 305, 20, 90 Arrival time [14h57:17h31]   [15h29:15h41]
Slip 15
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Cascadia (Mw 9)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -126.38, 45.47   Maximum wave elevation 0.4 0.0
Length, Width, Depth   1050e3, 70e3, 0   Maximum inundation depth   0.2 0.0
Strike, Dip, Rake 350, 15, 90 Arrival time [11h42:23h38]   -
Slip 17.5
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Aleutians (Mw 9)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude -175.41, 51.63   Maximum wave elevation 0.9 0.1
Length, Width, Depth   850e3, 150e3, 1e3   Maximum inundation depth   0.9 0.0
Strike, Dip, Rake 70, 15, 90 Arrival time [8h52:13h42]   -
Slip 10
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Kuril (Mw 9.28, 15-m resolution)

Fault parameters Tsunami statistics Wallis   Futuna
Longitude, Latitude 153.224, 46.616   Maximum wave elevation 3.9 4.5
Length, Width, Depth   1000e3, 200e3, 1e3   Maximum inundation depth   3.1 3.5
Strike, Dip, Rake 220, 30, 90 Arrival time [8h33: > 12h]   [8h49: > 12h]
Slip 17
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Enlarge
Initial vertical displacement (single okada fault)
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Enlarge
Maximum wave elevation. Log colorscale. Contours at 0.1,0.2,0.4,0.8,1.6,3.2... metres.
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Futuna: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.
Enlarge
Wallis: Maximum wave elevation. Linear colorscale. 0.5 metres contour interval.

Summary All Scenarios

Number   Scenario Name    Based on Date   Magnitude (Mw)    Length (m)    Width (m)    Slip (m)    Longitude    Latitude   Max Wave height (m)  Max Runout (m)    First Arrival after EQ    Last Arrival after EQ
1.1 Tonga 2009 29 Sep 2009 8.1 ? 342.5 61
1.2 Vanuatu North - - - 8.4 400 40 10 166.25 -12.6
1.3 Futuna Local 12 Mar 1993 7 40 15 2 -178.13 14.32
1.4 Vanuatu Back-Arc - 7.96 200 30 6 168.16 -15.3
1.5 South Vanuatu Trench - 8.24 300 40 8 168.7 -19.9
1.6 Tonga Worst Case - 9.06 1000 80 20 173.7 -20.5
1.7 Tonga Worst Case +1 m - 9.06 1000 80 20 173.7 -20.5
1.8 Central Tonga - 8.57 600 50 10 -174.5 -21.5
2.1 Tohuku (Japan) 11 Mar 2011 9 700 0 81
2.2 Chile 22 May 1960 9.3 920 120 32 -75.11 -42.17
2.3 Peru 13 Aug 1868 8.3 900 150 15 -74.5 -16.5
2.4 Aleutian 9 Mar 1957 8.6 850 150 10 -175.41 51.63
2.5 Cascadia worst case 9.1 1050 70 17.5 -126.38 45.47
2.6 Kurile worst case 9.28 1000 200 17 153.22 46.62
Personal tools
communication